78 MWs Of Renewable Capacity to be added to the grid by 2016

Jamaica has just over 800 megawatts of installed power generation capacity, this was previously expressed in my blog post titled "Reducing The Cost Of Energy In Jamaica". Of this total, renewable energy makes up a small fraction of generation capacity.

Data from the petroleum corporation of Jamaica, suggests that renewable energy was responsible for 9% of the aforementioned total in 2009. Heavy fuel oil makes up the remaining total, with the high cost of crude on the world market, this makes Jamaica highly exposed to external shocks.  In this regards, the aim of energy officials is to have 12.5% in installed renewable energy capacity by 2015/2016.

Wigton wind farm in south Manchester. Source of image: Jamaica Gleaner

This target seems plausible, as evident by recent pronouncements attributable to Science, Technology, Energy and Mining minister, Phillip Paulwell in the Jamaica Information Service (JIS). The minister suggests that, ground breaking on 78 megawatts of renewable energy capacity to take place by February of this year, and a completion date of March 2016. See the article for additional reading " Renewable Energy Projects To Add 78 Megawatts To National Grid".

A breakdown of the figure shows, 58 megawatts of additional wind power will augment what exists at wigton in Manchester. BMR wind Jamaica will add 34 megawatts of wind energy in Malvern, St Elizabeth. The petroleum corporation of Jamaica will add 24 megawatts of wind at the Manchester based, wigton wind farm. Additionally, WRB enterprises will build Jamaica's first solar photovoltaic plant, rated at 20 megawatts in Content Village, Clarendon.

The initial bidding round by the Office of Utilities Regulation (OUR), sought to secure 115 megawatts of renewable energy to add to the national grid. However, 78 megawatts of renewable energy was secured. Seeing that the aforementioned projects should be operational by Q1 2016, a new bidding round to secure additional renewable capacity should commence in the shortest possible time. As we need to make every effort to diversify Jamaica's energy mix, with renewable energy being a major contributor.

The long-term target of the energy ministry, is to have 20% renewable energy capacity on the local grid by 2030. However, minister Phillip Paulwell along with energy stakeholders insist that 30% is an achievable target, let's see what future brings.

References

http://www.pcj.com/dnn/RenewableEnergyPotential/tabid/171/Default.aspx

http://www.oldharbournews.com/index.php/business/item/301-jps-and-renewable-energy-providers-signed-historic-power-purchase-agreement/301-jps-and-renewable-energy-providers-signed-historic-power-purchase-agreement

Is Jamaica Prepared For A Major Earthquake?

Tuesday January 12, 2015, marked the 5 Th anniversary of the 2010 Haiti. The intensity was measured a remarkable 7.0. M on the Moment Magnitude Scale (MMS), a scale designated to measure the intensity of earthquakes. The MMS scale is preferred to the somewhat antiquated, Richter scale, that is said to underestimate higher magnitude earthquakes. However, the Richter scale is said to be a better measure of lower end earthquakes.

A fact to note is, to the eastern and southern end of the Island, Jamaica share the Enriquillo fault zone with Hispaniola. The Enriquillo fault zone is responsible for numerous earthquakes within the past 400 years. Including the aforementioned Haiti earthquake, the 1907 Kingston earthquake and the destructive 1692 earthquake that destroyed Port Royal. To the north and western end of Jamaica, lies the Walton fault zone. Both Walton and Enriquillo fault zones, separates the Gonave microplate from the Caribbean plate.

 Gonave And Caribbean plates. Source of images: UWI earthquake unit 

The 1907 Kingston earthquake was measured at 6.5. M on the Moment Magnitude Scale, not dissimilar to the 2010 Haiti earthquake. In technical terms, the 1907 earthquake was three times smaller in comparison to the 2010 Haitian earthquake, and released fewer than six times the energy of the 2010 Haitian earthquake. However, it is estimated that 1000 individuals were killed, with approximately 10 000 individuals left homeless.

The big daddy of the aforementioned earthquakes to affect Jamaica, was the disreputable 1692 Port Royal earthquake. It had an intensity of 7.5. M, a local tsunami was also triggered. It is estimated that 2000 individuals were killed. Additionally, approximately 66% of the Port Royal archipelago sank, destroying virtually everything. There were also numerous reports of landslides across Jamaica.

Is Jamaica Prepared For the Inevitable?

The Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM) designates the month of January as earthquake awareness month. Quoting from the earthquake unit at the University of the West Indies (UWI) "About 200 earthquakes are located in and around Jamaica per year most of which are minor, having magnitudes less than 4.0.". However, are we prepared for the next major earthquake?

A February 7, 2014 story in the Jamaica Gleaner, suggests that approximately 70% of designed buildings, are done without the input of building professionals. See the Jamaica Gleaner story for additional information: Jamaica's New Building Code Imminent.

Giddy House in Port Royal, Kingston. A region that is prone to liquefaction. Source of Image: Clarmo

A worrying statistic. But a study commissioned by NEM insurance company, implies that Jamaica should fare better Haiti, in the event of a 7.0. M earthquake. The study was carried out by the Mona Geoinformatics Institute and the earthquake unit at the University of the West Indies (UWI). The study suggests that eastern parishes should fare the worst. This attributable to the geology of the area, an area that is prone to landslides and liquefaction.

Despite being relatively prepared for a major earthquake, steps should be taken to improve our preparation for the inevitable. This includes proclamation of a new building code, providing required funding to the essential services and educating the public on what should be done in the event of a major earthquake. We cannot prevent earthquakes, but the aforementioned steps should go a far way in reducing property loss and loss of life.


References:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/topics/calculator.php

http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Jamaica-will-fare-better-than-Haiti-if-hit-by-a-7-0-quake--say-scientists_8573231

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/events/1692_06_07.php

http://www.mona.uwi.edu/earthquake/jaequake.php

America To Normalize Relations With Cuba; What are the implications to Jamaica?

The Five decades long embargo against Cuba is still in place, it came about following the Cuban missile crisis in 1962. However, somewhat surprising news came last December; the US announced the initiation of steps to normalize relations with Cuba. The announcement is generally seen as a positive development, but apprehension is also perceptible, especially within the Caribbean region. I'll explore whether the fear of US-Cuba diplomatic normalization is justified.

Plaza Vieja, Havana. Source of Image: Brian Snelson on Flickr.

A myriad of changes were contained in President Obama's announcement regarding US-Cuba relations, the aim of these changes are to take a flexible approach to diplomacy, as was done with China. The changes include relaxation on US-Cuban travel, though a ban on direct tourism travel remains. Plus, an increase in the sum that can be remitted to Cuba. Additional changes in the flow of information and commerce are expected.

What are the implications to Jamaica

On the positive side, benefits of the move will not be immediate, similarly, negative implications are not expected in the short term. The biggest worry is Cuba being a threat to the regional tourism industry, to be specific, the tourism industry here in Jamaica.

But with an Embargo in place, and the continued ban on tourist travel, Jamaica will maintain Its presence as a major player in regional tourism. Plus, it is said that tourist visits Jamaica because of our culture and strong brand, a trend that is likely to continue. However, this threat should not be taken likely, I urge stakeholders to implement measures to improve competitiveness to limit possible fallout, knowing that removal of the embargo is inevitable. Additionally, the ministry of  tourism must increase airlift and diversify tourism offerings.

Cuba's tourism industry wouldn't be considered nascent. In fact, their room stock consists of approximately 30 000, with at estimated 3 million tourists. A breakdown of the figure indicates that Canada is their primary source market. With diplomatic normalization, a gradual increase in American travelers are expected. However, removal of the embargo should allow for an exponential growth in the aforementioned travelers, possibly at a lost their neighbours.

On the economic side, an increase in remittance will have a positive on Cuban spending. However, removal of the embargo should provide an astronomical boost to the Cuban economy. Namely in areas such as telecommunications, construction, manufacturing and tourism.

In such a situation, Cuba's regional neighbours may see a reduction in foreign direct investment. Despite the possible negatives, opportunities for Jamaican and Caribbean business would be numerous. Plus, with over 11 million people, Cuba would be the largest Caribbean market. In other words, with time, Cuba may become a major consumer of regional goods.

I implore on the Jamaican government, private sector and individuals to improve their competiveness; while awaiting US-Cuba normalization, and the inevitable removal of the 5 decades long embargo. Doing otherwise may be fatal, economically speaking. However, be it cliche, let's see what pans out with time.

To Break Or Not To Break?

Negril, Westmoreland is well known to be a tourism dependent region. Tourism is a major employer of residents, not to mention the approximately US$ 500 million generated by tourism activities. However, the shoreline is now under threat, attributable to human activity, sea rise and anomalously high storm activity. As a result, studies have been done to remedy to situation, or halting the precipitous rate of beach erosion.

Negril beach, Westmoreland. Source of image: koolandgang

Over the past year, there have been widespread discussion on plans to build a breakwater to protect the shoreline at the tourism dependent Negril, Westmoreland. Hoteliers, residents and environmental groups have been generally against the building of breakwaters, which is expected to be implemented by the National Works Agency (NWA), under the watch of the National Environment and Planning Agency (NEPA). The method that is preferred by the aforementioned stakeholders is Beach nourishment. The argument is that a breakwater would not be aesthetically pleasing, and could result in major economic losses. Let's take a look at what's planned, and the possible alternative.

Breakwater

Breakwaters are considered to be hard structures. Quoting the marine engineering section of the Britannica " a break water is an artificial structure protecting a harbour, anchorage, or marina basin from water waves."

The primary aim of a breakwater is to absorb wave energy and protect a shoreline from erosion. We know from Physics, that energy cannot be created or destroyed. Energy transitions to a different form, or energy transfer between two bodies. We can see the latter while floating in the ocean, waves pass by an individual, but we remain in the same position. Essentially, the water is not moving, but energy is being transferred between water molecules.
I mentioned the above to suggest that a breakwater is best suited for a region with high wave energy. Plus, the breakwater method is relatively inexpensive when compared to beach nourishment.

On the downside, if a fixed breakwater is built, It's considered to be aesthetically displeasing. Construction time is often lengthy, leading to economic losses. Plus, a rock can be displaced during a storm surge.

Beach Nourishment

To understand what's beach nourishment, I'll share a quote by Sea Grant California "Beach Nourishment, or beach replenishment, is the practice of adding sand or sediment to beaches to combat erosion and increase beach width." 

Beach Nourishment is generally a preferred option to mitigating beach erosion, this because It's easily implemented. Plus, It is said to be aesthetically pleasing, and allows for natural beach accretion. Additionally, studies have shown that erosion is somewhat slowed during storm activity, if beach nourishment is done properly.

On the downside, beach nourishment is expensive. Marine animals on the beach can be killed, and beach nourishment has to be continuous. In other words, It may not be sustainable, especially if funds are limited.

Conclusion

It's imperative that a solution is found to the ongoing erosion, as failure to find a solution will result in major economic losses to Negril and the entire Jamaica. My view is that, beach nourishment can augment the benefits of a breakwater, instead of having a single method. But let's see what pans out in the coming months, seeing that the breakwater plan was recently approved.

Recovery of Jamaica's Bauxite/Alumina Sector?

Bauxite/Alumina has long been a major part of our history, at least in independent Jamaica. It is the heaviest industry in Jamaica. Before the recession in 2008/2009, Jamaica was producing in excess of 14 million tonnes of bauxite, and approximately 4 million tonnes of Alumina annually. This has fallen significantly, especially with two dormant plants since 2009. Export earnings peaked at over US $1.3 billion in 2008, making the bauxite/alumina Sector the third largest foreign exchange earner.

However, with the price of Aluminum well below that of 2008, export earnings are markedly below the aforementioned figure. The sector was dealt a severe blow in the recession, attributable to lower prices of the metal, in addition to exorbitant energy cost. Two of our four Alumina plants have been closed since 2009, But recent announcements suggests that this could change in the short to medium term. For additional information on the bauxite/alumina Sector, visit: Jamaica Bauxite Institute

Bauxite mining in Jamaica. Source of Image:JIS

The announcement by minister Phillip Paulwell, of impending mining operations at Aluminum Partners of Jamaica (ALPART) has been greeted with excitement, especially in south east St Elizabeth and south Manchester. These bauxite producing areas have been plagued by high unemployment, and weak economic activity. But residents are now optimistic about a possible change in fortune.

Mining operations at ALPART is said to resume in January 2015, with export of the ore in July 2015. Sadly, residents have to wait until December 2016 before the Alumina refinery is up and running. Minister Phillip Paulwell states that investment in a power plant, port and plant facilities amount to approximately US $ 400 million, with job opportunities for a possible 1200 people.

A visit to nearby communities in which Alpart and Kirkvine plants operate makes the fallout in bauxite/alumina sector conspicuous, many towns or communities appear as virtual ghost towns, namely Nain in south east St Elizabeth and Content in Central Manchester. Mandeville, Manchester is doing better, but the fallout is still evident, any upswing in bauxite/alumina is a positive for the aforementioned area.

Word from Phillip Paulwell, suggests that discussion on the future of the Kirvine refinery is taking place. A positive outcome should be welcome. In terms of the wider Jamaican economy, having these plants open will help to decrease the unemployment rate, increase foreign exchange earnings and help to boost GDP growth.

Though many positives are associated with the bauxite/Alumina sector, issues of land reclamation has been perennial. Steps should be taken to remedy this problem.

 Land reclamation in central Manchester. Source of image: nigel182

But all and all, with improving Aluminum prices, steps taken to lower the cost of energy, and more automobile manufacturers planning to substitute Steel with Aluminum. Sustained growth in our bauxite/alumina sector seem likely, especially if the above conditions come to fruition. With that said, mining and alumina production in Jamaica should continue for sometime.

Regional Drought

Jamaica, as is the case for much of the region, is now experiencing drought conditions. Wildfires are burning, vegetation is drying up and water storage levels are currently approaching crisis levels. Take Jamaica, for example, a recent news report suggests that water resources in the Kingston Metropolitan are on the brink of being depleted. To be specific, the report suggests that only One month's supply of water in Corporate Area is available. Except for may be Cuba and the Bahamas, the rest of the Caribbean is experiencing below normal rainfall, and drought conditions could get worse if conditions continue as is.

Figure 1: Dry vegetation in central Jamaica. Source of image: Personal photo

What's causing the drought?

May, generally marks the commencement of the Caribbean's secondary wet season. But seasonal rainfall has been below normal since then. Why, you may ask? The most likely reason would be El Nino, though climate change may exacerbate these conditions, the evidence to support this theory is inconclusive. El Nino has not been declared, but sea surface temperature anomalies have been at or close to the 0.5 Celsius threshold since mid April. The southern oscillation index was out of sync with warming equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures, but recent downward spikes in the index suggests that the official declaration may be on the horizon.

Figure 2: Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, note the warmer than average SSTs across the equatorial and northern Pacific. Source of image: Tropical Tidbits

The subtropical jet is further south in El Nino/warm ENSO years, this will generally increase the upper level winds across the Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic, which enhances vertical wind shear across the aforementioned area. These conditions tend to suppress tropical cyclone development, with accompanying dryer than normal conditions in the main development region.

Figure 3: El Nino effects during June through August. Source of image: National Weather Service

The forecast suggests that drought conditions will persist up to September, so I would urge my fellow islanders conserve water, as it seems as if conditions will get worse before they get better.

Asphalt vs Concrete roads: Which is the best option for Jamaica?

Jamaican roads have been deteriorating for many years now, particularly over the last decade for one cause or the other. But can these roads be made more robust? I'll have a look at this question a bit later. The primary paving material globally is using asphalt concrete, which no different in Jamaica. Let's have a brief look at what is asphalt concrete pavement. Here's a quote from Recycled Materials Resources Center: "Asphalt Concrete consist of a combination of layer of layers, which include an asphalt concrete surface constructed over a granular or asphalt base and sub base."

Figure 1: The image shows workmen paving road using Asphalt. Source of image: LL Pelling CO. Asphalt Paving.

We all know about asphalt roads, but one that comes to mind is concrete roads, as the name suggests, the surface is done using concrete pavement. Concrete is seldom used on Jamaican roads, but this could change relatively soon. Caribbean Cement Company Limited (CCCL) has been having conversations with the government of Jamaica, their aim is to increase the use of concrete on our road island wide. In this regards, I will have a look at the benefits and downsides of Asphalt and Concrete roads respectively.

Figure 2: The image shows workmen paving road using Concrete. Source of image: GOMACO Corporation.

Asphalt vs Concrete

Asphalt

Asphalt is considered to be an inexpensive pavement material, hence its widespread use. Take the United States for example, asphalt was responsible for approximately 94% of all pavements in 2008, and Jamaica is no different. Asphalt can be recycled and reused, this can be accomplished by melting. Maintenance of asphalt roads is also more economical, damaged areas are easily fixed and existing asphalt surfaces can be relayed. Another notable benefit of asphalt is the time taken to build these roads, asphalt roads are accessible within an hour of being laid.

The average lifespan of asphalt roads is generally under 15 years, this lifespan would be reduced greatly with natural hazards such as extreme downpours. Asphalt is generally derived from the distillation of crude oil, also known as asphaltic bitumen, this makes asphalt vulnerable to spikes in crude oil prices. The United States department of transport suggests that the cost of asphalt has increased by over 200% since 2003, I would assume that the cost is similar or more for Jamaica.

Concrete

Concrete roads are a lot more durable when compared to asphalt, various studies have found that concrete roads can last between 20 to 50 years. The lifespan of concrete roads significantly reduces the cost of maintenance, this will limit the damages of heavy duty trucks and natural hazards. Possibly of most significance, studies have also shown that fuel consumption is reduced by 15-20% on concrete roads.

On the other side of the coin, the initial cost of building concrete roads can be up to 50% more than asphalt. Concrete roads are also more difficult to maintain, and heavy downpours can render the roads slippery.

Asphalt paving companies need not worry about going out of business, if if the use of concrete on roads become prevalent. Minister of transport works and housing, Dr Omar Davies, said that bids for future road repairs or construction will accommodate both asphalt and concrete. So asphalt would not be sidelined. Here's a link to his pronouncements: Concrete Could Be Used On Roads.

To conclude, the cost to implement concrete roads are generally over 40% more than asphalt, but our only cement maker, CCCL purports that they are capable of building concrete roads for approximately 10% more than the current cost of asphalt. This was evident from a recent gleaner post: Carib Cement Rolls Out Road Plans-Says Cement Is Better Than Asphalt. If this is possible, I see no reasons why we should not be using concrete to build roads, especially with the many long term economic benefits. Plus, most of the cement can be easily acquired here in Jamaica, and this would limit the outflow of foreign exchange. With that being said, I hope that concrete roads will become a permanent part our long term plans.

References: 

* http://www.brighthubengineering.com/concrete-technology/45858-concrete-roads-vs-asphalt-roads/

* http://www.pwmag.com/concrete/asphalt-vs--concrete--the-fight-to-pave-our-roads.aspx

* http://www.concreteisbetter.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Concrete-vs-Asphalt.pdf

* http://www.differencebetween.net/object/difference-between-concrete-and-asphalt-roads/